But even with all of that, forecasters still think the United States could hit 65 percent turnout — which, while still leaving out many voters , could be the highest in a century. Turnout was about 60 percent in , at about million people. The website FiveThirtyEight is predicting turnout of about million people, based on polls of voter enthusiasm and other data. Not much! Yes, Democrats have an edge in early voting overall.
Registered Democrats voted early at a higher rate than Republicans, but that number is narrowing. Democrats are voting in much greater numbers by mail, which is a big reason they have such a big advantage in the early vote count. So Republicans showed up for early in-person voting, and even more are expected to turn out on Election Day. Nationally, maybe not — especially with populous blue states like California in the mix. And not all voters affiliate themselves with a political party; unaffiliated voters cast about one-quarter of all early votes in states where that data is available.
Depending on how the electoral map shakes out, it might be possible to get a sense of whether Biden or Trump has won on election night. States have different rules on vote processing and counting , and that will make a huge difference in how results are reported. Some states, such as Florida and Arizona, have already started to process and count mail-in ballots. Michigan can start processing ballots the day before Election Day.
Because Democrats have an edge in early voting, specifically in mail-in voting, states like Florida and North Carolina could very well post results that look favorable to Democrats early in the night. Election officials are preparing for this. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said she is asking counties to update their election results periodically, rather than all at once, to avoid the appearance of massive shifts that might feed conspiracy theories. All of that makes it hard to know whether the explosion of early voting this year is an outlier, or the start of a new normal.
As experts pointed out, the number of people voting early, either in person or by mail, was already increasing gradually, and even without all of the crises that have happened this year, it was expected to grow. And many, many states changed to make it easier to vote by mail. What emerged from necessity could become more permanent, as both voters and election officials realize there might be better ways to run elections.
That was really convenient. I liked that. Election officials might have a few epiphanies, too, especially when it comes to voting by mail. Gronke predicts another spurt of election reform, similar to what happened after the election, and the Florida recount, in the race between George W.
Bush and Al Gore, including possible proposals at the federal level to expand the franchise. House Democrats have already passed a voting rights bill , and should Democrats retake Congress and the White House, they will likely pursue that as a top priority.
Still, the election has shown how partisanship has leaked even into the ways people choose to vote, not just whom they vote for. So how does voter turnout in the United States compare with turnout in other countries? Political scientists often define turnout as votes cast divided by the number of eligible voters. Comparing U. Political scientists often define turnout as votes cast divided by the estimated number of eligible voters. But eligible-voter estimates are difficult or impossible to find for many nations.
We calculated turnout rates for the most recent national election in each country, except in cases where that election was for a largely ceremonial position or for European Parliament members turnout is often substantially lower in such elections.
Census Bureau, the Office of the Clerk of the U. Overall, Just over House of Representatives which include more than , blank, spoiled or otherwise null ballots.
The One factor behind the consistently high turnout rates in Australia and Belgium may be that they are among the 21 nations around the world , including six in the OECD, with some form of compulsory voting. That perception may be turning off some voters who might otherwise be more likely to cast a ballot.
Martinez, who identifies as Mexican American, said he thinks Republicans benefit from lower turnout from people like him. Andrea Johnson, meanwhile, has voted in the past but thinks that not voting this year is the best way to send a message to the parties.
This year, though, there are signs that we could be heading for record-breaking voter turnout. And if that happens, it could be due in large part to the fact that a lot of people who vote only sometimes cast a ballot this year.
According to our survey, 82 percent of these voters are following the election somewhat or very closely, and 93 percent are planning to vote in — very close to the share of those who say they always vote 97 percent. For voters like Amanda Robey, 38, this election feels like a chance to hit the reset button.
She regretted that decision almost immediately. In interviews and the survey, we found, time and again, an increased sense of urgency to vote among less-frequent voters. The statewide restrictions put in place during the COVID pandemic, for one, convinced Lila Haddad, 31, to start paying more attention to down-ballot races.
But those feelings might not persist. This year, many Americans on both sides of the political divide feel a need to participate that overrides their distaste for the candidates and the system, but it may not last.
Each individual voter will face a new calculus two or four years from now, when the political context could be quite different. Eduardo Martinez, for instance, said that if Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College, he might not bother voting in the future.
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Jasmine Mithani. Although one-third of eligible American voters did not cast a ballot in the presidential election, it was the lowest level of not voting in a presidential election in more than a hundred years. Since the start of the 20th century, the highest proportions of eligible voters not voting in a U.
In contrast, the lowest proportions of Americans not voting in a U. In the and presidential elections, the proportions of eligible voters not casting a ballot were record lows for the country, approximately 17 and 18 percent, respectively. For example, low percentages of the eligible populations not voting in recent elections where voting is not compulsory include Sweden 13 percent , Denmark 17 percent , South Korea 20 percent , and the Netherlands 21 percent.
However, some countries have substantially higher levels of non-voting in recent elections than the U. Approximately 27 percent of all Americans aged 18 years or older, numbering 63 million men and women, had not registered to vote. Those 63 million unregistered U. Other reasons offered by those who did not vote or failed to register to vote in the election included not being interested due to voter apathy , alienation, skepticism and voter fatigue , purged voter rolls, strict ID laws , and is a hassle.
Having difficulty voting , however, did not appear to play a significant role in not voting. In particular, the COVID pandemic was not reported to be an important factor preventing people from registering or voting.
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